Winning the Golden Heart takes more than luck, but that doesn’t mean you should ignore the odds. If you’ve written a fence-sitting manuscript and you aren’t sure where it belongs, this information might help you make your decision.
Now, everyone knows that each year’s class of Golden Heart finalists represents the top-scoring 10% of manuscripts entered in the contest. Right?
Wrong, at least it was in 2009. Last year’s sixty-seven finalists represented, on average, 8.2% of their categories. Those sixty-seven manuscripts comprised just 7.4% of the total entries received. Only one category (Inspirational Romance) graduated exactly 10% of its entries to the final round.
Why?
Golden Heart rules are funny. Here are two that tend to skew the number of finalists above or below 10% of the total:
- FINALIST CAPS: Contest policy states that there can be no more than eight finalists in any category, nine in the case of a tie.
- NO PARTIAL FINALISTS: Because the number of entries in a category is rarely evenly divisible by ten, RWA must round to ensure that the number of finalists is a whole number (we can’t have 6.2 finalists, can we?).
Here’s how the numbers broke down in 2009:
| 2009 Golden Heart Categories |
# Entries
|
# Finalists
|
Percent of Category
|
| Novel with Strong Romantic Elements |
152
|
8
|
5.3%
|
| Paranormal Romance |
141
|
8
|
5.7%
|
| Contemporary Single Title Romance |
111
|
8
|
7.2%
|
| Romantic Suspense |
110
|
8
|
7.3%
|
| Contemporary Series Romance |
103
|
8
|
7.8%
|
| Historical Romance |
107
|
9
|
8.4%
|
| Regency Historical Romance |
62
|
6
|
9.7%
|
| Inspirational Romance |
40
|
4
|
10.0%
|
| Contemporary Series Romance: Suspense/Adventure |
29
|
3
|
10.3%
|
| Young Adult Romance |
46
|
5
|
10.9%
|
| TOTAL |
901
|
67
|
7.4%
|
| AVERAGE |
90.1
|
6.7
|
8.2%
|
While this data doesn’t imply anything about reader trends or the quality of manuscripts in any category, it does show us the relative popularity of each genre within the romance writing community. Clearly, more of us are writing, finishing, and submitting Novels with Strong Romantic Elements to the Golden Heart than any other genre. Thus, that category was more mathematically competitive than any other genre last year.
I’d love to do this analysis on previous years, but I haven’t been able to find total entry data from previous years. (If you have it, please email me!) I do know how many finalists there were in 2007 and 2008, and from that we can draw limited conclusions. It’s likely that if a category had less than eight finalists, then those finalists represent around 10% of the total entries. Viewed through this lens, relative popularity trends have remained stable over the past three years.
|
Number of Finalists 2007-2009
|
| CATEGORIES |
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
| Contemporary Series Romance (added 2008) |
|
9
|
8
|
| Contemporary Series Romance: Suspense/Adventure (added 2008) |
|
4
|
3
|
| Short Contemporary Romance (ended 2007) |
8
|
8
|
8
|
| Contemporary Single Title Romance |
|
9
|
9
|
| Short Historical Romance (ended 2007) |
5
|
|
|
| Long Historical Romance (ended 2007) |
8
|
9
|
8
|
| Historical Romance (new 2008) |
4
|
5
|
4
|
| Inspirational Romance |
6
|
|
|
| Long Contemporary Romance (ended 2007) |
7
|
|
|
| Novel with Strong Romantic Elements |
8
|
8
|
8
|
| Paranormal Romance |
|
6
|
6
|
| Regency Historical Romance |
8
|
8
|
8
|
| Romantic Suspense |
8
|
|
|
| Young Adult Romance |
5
|
4
|
5
|
| TOTALS |
67
|
70
|
67
|
No category has varied by more than one finalist over the past three years. Even figures from the categories that have been merged or deleted suggest consistent interest in each genre.
What does this mean for 2010 Golden Heart entrants?
Nothing. Or everything. If you enter a category that happens to receive more than eighty entries, your chances of finaling are automatically worse than they’d be if you entered a smaller category. That isn’t to say that you can or should avoid entering perennially popular categories–or that any category will be as popular in 2010 as it was in 2009, 2008, and 2007–but if you’ve written a fence-sitting novel and are desperate for a reason to enter one category or another, consider adding mathematical competitiveness trends to your mental gymnastics.
Why does it matter how many finalists are in any category?
If you final, you’re more likely to win if you have fewer competitors. As the winner of the smallest group last year, I know that my odds of winning (one in three) were better than they would have been in, say, Historical Romance (one in nine, ouch!). Odds like these apply to all competitors, and tell us nothing about the quality of one manuscript over another. And no, I don’t think judges roll dice to select scores or winners, but I can’t help but keep an eye on historical data as I think about what category I’ll enter my baby into this year.
Will you take any of this into consideration when you select your category for the Golden Heart? Do you wish your category were more or less popular? Have you written a novel in a less-popular genre with the hope that you’ll have a better chance of standing out? Or do you think it’s unwise to write in what may be a fading fashion?
One lucky commenter will receive his or her choice of a first chapter critique (up to 25 pages) or a cool, Ruby-Slippered Sisterhood mug.
Disclaimer: For official Golden Heart rules and regulations, consult http://www.rwanational.org and the most current Policies and Procedures manual in the governance documents section of RWA’s website (http://www.rwanational.org/cs/rwa_governance/governance_documents).
|
I was just discussing this with someone. It’s a no brainer. Unfortunately I didn’t figure it out until this year. LOL
I have single title manuscripts and I have inspy manuscripts. I wasted my money putting my odds on the ST when clearly the Inspy category was the one to enter.
Magic is a wonderful thing, but the numbers don’t lie.
Great post. Thanks.
Tina,
I entered one each in the Historical and Inspy cats last year. One finaled — the historical. Go figure. And the scores on the Inspy (which had won — and garnered an editor request — the only other contest I’d entered it in), were well below finalist level — barely making it into the top half of entries in the category. Only one judge really liked it. That’s where that element of luck (or maybe Divine Providence if you are entering inspys ) comes into play. Can you get five judges who “get” your book?
Tina, thanks for stopping by and commenting.
The stats can’t tell us everything, as CJ points out. They can’t tell us whether our book is a better fit for this or that category, or whether or not we’ll happen to get five judges who like to read the kind of book we’ve written. I wish I could divine more direction from numbers, but sadly, the answers to our hardest questions can only be found in our hearts.